He is also closely associated with australia, whose philosophical community he visited almost annually for more than thirty years. Event theories give pride of place to causal statements such as. Roughly speaking, the idea is that the counterfactual from a to c should be taken to be true just in case all of the closest. The term counterfactual conditional was coined by nelson goodman in 1947, extending roderick chisholms 1946 notion of a contrarytofact conditional. Note on the incompleteness of an axiom system in lewis counterfactuals abstract i give a simple proof that an axiomatization of vc given in the original printing of lewis counterfactuals is incomplete. The counterfactual analysis jonathan bennett syracuse university two distinctions philosophical theories of causation can be split two ways, into four groups. Counterfactuals stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. A counterfactual conditional abbreviated cf, is a conditional with a false ifclause. Philosophers have traditionally divided conditionals into two main groups, indicative, which can be symbolized as a c, and subjunctive a c. Counterfactual definition of counterfactual by the free. The lewis account of counterfactuals explains this fact.
The first was developed by saul kripke in the 1960s and the second was developed by david lewis in the 1970s. David lewis 19412001 was one of the most important philosophers of the 20th century. As such, the clarification of the facts on which this science is built, and of the way political conclusions are based on them, is of the greatest practical importance. Counterfactual theories of causation stanford encyclopedia. In a recent paper, pruss 20 proves the validity of the rule beta2 relative to lewiss semantics for counterfactuals, which is a significant step forward in the debate about the consequence argument. On lewis, schaffer and the nonreductive evaluation of. Counterfactuals and historical possibility philsciarchive. To find the nearest world that is p and r we might have to move to a still more distant world. Could indicative conditionals just be a special case of counterfactual condi tionals e. Counterfactuals is david lewis forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrary to fact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds. A counterfactual is a scenario that will occur if an agent chooses a certain action, or that would have occurred if an agent had chosen an action they did not.
David lewis 1979 has argued that according to his possible worlds analysis of counterfactuals, backtracking counterfactuals of the form if event a were to happen at t a, then event b would happen at t b where t b precedes t a, are usually false if b does not actually happen at t b. Counterfactuals is david lewiss forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrarytofact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds. We think of a cause as something that makes a difference, and the difference it makes it makes must be a difference. Counterfactual considerations effective altruism concepts. Jan 24, 2001 counterfactuals is david lewis s forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrarytofact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds. Lewis accepts this and argues that any explication of. These counterfactuals are of the form if a were the case pr c would be x, where the counterfactual is an ordinary wouldcounterfactual, interpreted according to the semantics above, and the pr operator is a probability operator with narrow scope confined to the consequent of the counterfactual. I formulate a counterfactual version of the notorious ramsey test. The term counterfactual conditional was coined by nelson goodman in 1947, extending roderick chisholm s 1946 notion of a contrarytofact conditional. Counterfactuals with disjunctive antecedents naturally convey that the conse. One criticism of david lewiss account of counterfactuals is that it sometimes assigns the wrong truthvalue to a counterfactual when. How women with intimate partner violence ipv reason about others intentions. Lewis on causation the linchpin of lewis views on causation is the counterfactual. David lewis 1973 analyzes the truth conditions and logic of counterfactuals in terms of possible worlds possible world semantics.
Whether or not e occurs depends on whether or not c occurs. A counterfactual is interpreted as a statement about how things occur in other possible worlds governed by the same laws of nature. Trustees of princeton university counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science authors. Lewiss theory works for such a counterfactual, because the consequent holds at each world at which antecedent holds. In some senses we can say that lewis system of counterfactuals or counter factual semantics cfs is built on top of the architecture which kripke created with his possible worlds semantics pws. Counterfactual definition of counterfactual by merriamwebster. Counterfactual thinking cft is a specific type of human thought involving mental representations of alternatives to past situations by perceiving the immediate environment to an imagined perspective 12. Counterfactuals and explanation princeton university.
Lewis taught briefly at ucla and then at princeton from 1970 until. Counterfactuals is david lewiss forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrarytofact. A c is true at w iff there are no possible aworlds, or some aworld where c is true is closer to w than any aworld where c is false. Pdf a refutation of the lewisstalnaker analysis of. But, if we follow shannons understanding of information, then this is the. The lewis account explains why counterfactuals dont contrapose, that is, why p.
Lewis, david, counterfactuals and comparative possibility, journal of philosophical logic, 2. But what we are dealing with is a different kind of counterfactual from that in the kinds of everyday counterfactuals lewis was interested in for the production of the arrow of time. Counterfactuals, causal independence and conceptual. Its important to note that counterfactuals have, perhaps necessarily so, a certain vagueness. Lewis, david, counterfactuals and comparative possibility.
Lewis takes a strong realist line on possible worlds. Made it through the first 4 chapters with considerable effort while researching for a paper in scientific explanation. Lewis counterfactual theory of causation summary an account only of deterministic, token causation. Counterfactuals is david lewis s forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrarytofact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds. Ever since the pioneering work of stalnaker and lewis, it has been customary to provide. The resulting counterfactual analysis of causation faces a. If it had been the case that p, then it would have been the case that q is true at a world w just in case q is true at all the possible pworlds closest to w. David lewis counterfactuals and comparative possibility in the last dozen years or so, our understanding of modality has been much improved by means of possibleworld semantics. I point out that there is an ambiguity in the claim that the past is counterfactually independent of the present or, more generally, that the earlier is counterfactually independent of the later. To these basic modal notions, lewis adds the similarity relation d.
Statistical mechanics and the asymmetry of counterfactual. Possible worlds semantics and truetrue counterfactuals. Since its original publication in 1973, it has become a classic of contemporary philosophy, and is essential reading for anyone interested in the logic. Lewis on counterfactuals lewis 1973a, 1973b, 1979, 1986b develops what remains the standard semantics for counterfactual conditionals. Jonathan schaffer 2004 proposes an ingenious amendment to david lewis s semantics for counterfactuals. Causal inference without counterfactuals created date. Since its original publication in 1973, it has become a classic of contemporary philosophy, and is essential reading.
A refutation of the lewisstalnaker analysis of counterfactuals article pdf available in metaphysica 171 january 2016 with 46 reads how we measure reads. He made significant contributions to philosophy of language, philosophy of mathematics, philosophy of science, decision theory, epistemology, metaethics and aesthetics. Counterfactuals and the fixity of the past springerlink. Whereas the ramsey test for indicative conditionals links credence in. Counterfactuals without possible worlds ever since the.
David lewis 1986 defends an analysis of counterfactuals intended to yield this asymmetry. It then provides two broad surveys of research that places counterfactuals at the center of key philosophical issues. More philosophers might find a possibleworld analysis of counterfactuals acceptable as an interim. If a then c a is called the antecedent of the conditional and c the consequent.
Lewis 1973a, c refines it using his similarity semantics for counterfactualssee 2. Lewis emphasizes that d2a has to do with singular cases and with counterfactuals about probabilities rather than with conditional probabilities. Since its original publication in 1973, it has become a classic of contemporary philosophy, and is essential reading for anyone interested in the logic and. Lewis accepts this and argues that any explication of counterfactuals must therefore either be stated in. Counterfactuals without possible worlds ever since the pioneering work of stalnaker and lewis1, it has been customary to provide a semantics for counterfactuals statements in terms of possible worlds. This helps him to avoid common cause problems and also to allow for the conceptual possibility of a wholly deterministic world. David kellogg lewis september 28, 1941 october 14, 2001 was an american philosopher. Counterfactuals and explanation boris kment on the received view, counterfactuals are analyzed using the concept of closeness between possible worlds.
L lewiss theory a causes b if and only if a and b are distinct events and if a were not to occur, then b would not. David lewis theories of causation and their influence. A conditional is a sentence, statement, proposition, or thought of the form. Counterfactuals, causal independence and conceptual circularity. Possibleworld theories of counterfactuals bibliography. Thirty years after lewiss paper, this book brings together some of the most important recent work connectingor, in some cases, disputing the connection betweencounterfactuals and causation, including the complete version of lewiss whitehead lectures, causation as influence, a major reworking of his original paper. Lewis on might and would counterfactual conditionals. Counterfactuals is david lewiss forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrarytofact conditi. If he speaks of salamis, then it must be as if the persians might still win. That is why lewis and jackson, having accepted the materialconditional theory for indicatives, adopt a nonuniform general theory of conditionals, lewis 1973 offering a possibleworlds account of counterfactuals and jackson 1977 a causal account.
Facts and counterfactuals in economic law mises institute. Lewiss counterfactual theory of causation christian loew. Suppose there are possible worlds, 1 ordered by comparative similarity. Lewis 1979 proposes a new system of weights that amounts to a kind of curvefitting. Counterfactuals is david lewis s forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrarytofact conditi. Counterfactuals paperback october 15, 1987 by david k. Pdf on laws and counterfactuals in causal reasoning. Proof analysis for lewis counterfactuals university of helsinki. While not an easy read it was definitely enjoyable with well written sections and really helped illuminate david lewis s thoughts on counterfactuals and made it all seem a little less mysterious to me.
Counterfactuals, correlatives, and disjunctive antecedents. Causal relations holds in virtue of facts about counterfactual dependence. For instance, we can consider a counterfactual scenario in which the effective altruism community was never set up, or another in which it was called effective giving rather than effective altruism. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. Counterfactuals university of california, berkeley. Trustees of princeton university stanford university. I then brie y discuss its relationship to other axiomatizations lewis gave. First, there is the split between event and fact or state of affairs theories. I argue that david lewiss attempt, in his counterfactual dependence and times arrow, to explain the fixity of the past in terms of counterfactual independence is unsuccessful. The socalled counterfactual conditionals that have been.
Lewis taught briefly at ucla and then at princeton from 1970 until his death. Counterfactuals roughly, statements of the form if c hadnt occurred, e wouldnt have occurred are intrinsically interesting for lewis, but also unite several strands of his system. The evaluation of the sources of plausibility have been soundly analyzed by many authors using different approaches and methods e. The study of counterfactual speculation has increasingly engaged the interest of scholars in a wide range of domains such. While not an easy read it was definitely enjoyable with well written sections and really helped illuminate david lewiss thoughts on counterfactuals and made it all seem a little less mysterious to me. If the nearest qworld were nearer than the nearest pworld, then it would follow that q. In a minimal change semantics, counterfactuals are evaluated by checking whether the consequent is true in the maximally similar worlds where the antecedent is stalnaker, 1968.
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